{"value":{"id":1843692,"askingMemberId":547,"askingMember":null,"house":"Lords","memberHasInterest":false,"dateTabled":"2025-10-21T00:00:00","dateForAnswer":"2025-11-04T00:00:00","uin":"HL11209","questionText":"To ask His Majesty's Government what recent estimate they have made of the impact of Brexit on the economy.","answeringBodyId":14,"answeringBodyName":"Treasury","isWithdrawn":false,"isNamedDay":false,"groupedQuestions":[],"answerIsHolding":false,"answerIsCorrection":false,"answeringMemberId":4559,"answeringMember":null,"correctingMemberId":null,"correctingMember":null,"dateAnswered":"2025-10-27T00:00:00","answerText":"<p>The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is the Government’s official forecaster.</p><p> </p><p>In 2020, the OBR estimated that the additional trade barriers associated with leaving the EU will reduce trade intensity by 15 per cent and as a result GDP will be 4 per cent lower than it otherwise would have been. The OBR estimated that around two-fifths of the 4 per cent impact had already occurred by the time the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement came into force, that GDP would be 2.7 per cent lower by 2025, with the remaining reduction occurring by 2031.</p><p> </p><p>In the OBR’s March 2024 Economic and Fiscal Outlook, they reaffirmed these assumptions were on track, and as of Spring 2025 these forecasts were unchanged.</p><p> </p><p>Other independent studies are also consistent with this analysis, for example the National Institute of Economic and Social Research estimates that GDP will be 5 to 6 per cent lower as a result of Brexit.</p><p> </p>","originalAnswerText":"","comparableAnswerText":"","dateAnswerCorrected":null,"dateHoldingAnswer":null,"attachmentCount":0,"heading":"Brexit","attachments":[],"groupedQuestionsDates":[]},"links":[{"rel":"self","href":"/Questions/1843692","method":"GET"}]}